Climate change 2022: More studies needed on possibility of human extinction
Catastrophic climate change outcomes, including human extinction, are not being taken seriously enough by scientists, a new study says.
The authors say that the consequences of more extreme warming - still on the cards if no action is taken - are "dangerously underexplored".
They argue that the world needs to start preparing for the possibility of what they term the "climate endgame".
They want UN scientists to investigate the risk of catastrophic change. According to this new analysis, the closest attempts to directly understand or address how climate change could lead to global catastrophe have come from popular science books such as The Uninhabitable Earth and not from mainstream science research.
Acidic oceans helped fuel the biggest mass extinction in the history of life on Earth
The exact causes behind the Permian-Triassic mass extinction have been much debated. Two separate pulses of CO2 into the atmosphere - a "one-two punch" - may have helped fuel the die-off, new research suggests. Changes to ocean acidity would have been one of the consequences, according to the study in Science journal. Computer models suggested that this CO2 may have been released by massive bouts of volcanism from the Siberian Traps, now represented as a large region of volcanic rock in northern Eurasia. The Permian-Triassic mass extinction, which took place 252 million years ago, wiped out more than 90% of marine species and more than two-thirds of the animals living on land. The event is thought to have played out over a 60,000-year period and acidification of the oceans lasted for about 10,000 years. The team led by Dr Matthew Clarkson from the University of Edinburgh analysed rocks unearthed in the United Arab Emirates - which were on the ocean floor at the time. The rocks preserve a detailed record of changing oceanic conditions at the time. They then developed a climate model to work out what drove the extinction. The researchers think the rapid rate of release of carbon was a crucial factor in driving the ocean acidification. The carbon was released at a similar rate to modern emissions. Dr Clarkson commented: "Scientists have long suspected that an ocean acidification event occurred during the greatest mass extinction of all time, but direct evidence has been lacking until now.
Emissions of CO2 driving rapid oceanic acidification
Corals all over the world are threatened by rising rates of acidification in the oceans.
The world's oceans are becoming acidic at an "unprecedented rate", more rapidly than at any time in the past 300 million years. In their strongest statement yet on this issue, scientists say acidification could increase by 170% by 2100. They say that some 30% of ocean species are unlikely to survive in these conditions. The researchers conclude that human emissions of CO2 are clearly to blame. The study will be presented at global climate talks in Poland next week.
In 2012, over 500 of the world's leading experts on ocean acidification gathered in California. Led by the International Biosphere-Geosphere Programme, a review of the state of the science has now been published. This Summary for Policymakers states with "very high confidence" that increasing acidification is caused by human activities which are adding 24 million tonnes of CO2 to oceans every day.
Fossil fuel subsidies a reckless use of public funds
The world is spending half a trillion dollars on fossil fuel subsidies every year, according to a new report. The Overseas Development Institute (ODI) says rich countries are spending seven times more supporting coal, oil and gas than they are on helping poorer nations fight climate change. Fuel subsidies to US farmers amounted to $1bn in 2011 says the ODI. Some countries including Egypt, Morocco and Pakistan, have subsidies bigger than the national fiscal deficit. The new report calls on the G20 to phase out the payments by 2020. While there is no globally agreed definition of what a fossil fuel subsidy actually is, the report draws on a range of sources from the International Monetary Fund to the International Energy Agency. It details the range of financial help given to oil, coal and gas producers and consumers from national governments and through international development. What emerges is a complicated web of different types of payments in different countries. In the United States, for example, the government in 2011 gave a $1bn fuel tax exemption to farmers, $1bn for the strategic petroleum reserve and $0.5bn for oil, coal and gas research and development. Germany gave financial assistance totalling 1.9bn euro to the hard coal sector in the same year. And the UK gave tax concessions worth £280m in 2011 for oil and gas production. Pakistan is a country with the second highest number of children out of school in the world. It has some of the worst nutrition, maternal mortality and child health indicators.
Changing the way farmers plough their lands could have a big impact on global emissions of greenhouse gases. Changing farming practices could play an important role in averting dangerous climate change says the UN. In their annual emissions report, they measure the difference between the pledges that countries have made to cut warming gases and the targets required to keep temperatures below 2C. On present trends there is likely to be an annual excess of 8 to 12 gigatonnes of these gases by 2020. Agriculture, they say, could make a significant difference to the gap. This is the fourth such report, compiled by the United Nations Environment Programme (Unep) in conjunction with 44 scientific groups in 17 countries. It says the world needs to reduce total emissions to 44 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent by 2020 to keep the planet from going above the 2C target, agreed at a UN meeting in Cancun in 2010. But when all the pledges and plans made by countries are added together, they show an excess of between 8 and 12 gigatonnes per annum in seven years time, very similar to last year's report. To put it in context, 12 gigatonnes is about 80% of all the emissions coming from all the power plants in the world right now. The authors highlight a number of ways in which this gap can be closed, including tightening the rules for counting emissions and expanding the scope of pledges already made. They believe around half the gap could be closed in this way.
Study reveals 'true' material cost of development say researchers
Current methods of measuring the full material cost of imported goods are highly inaccurate say researchers. In a new study, they found that three times as many raw materials are used to process and export traded goods than are used in their manufacture. Richer countries who believe they have succeeded in developing sustainably are mistaken say the authors. The research has been published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. Many developed nations believe they are on a path to sustainable development, as their economic growth has risen over the past 20 years but the level of raw materials they are consuming has declined. But this new study indicates that these countries are not including the use of raw materials that never leave their country of origin. Heavy footprints The researchers used a new model that looked at metal ores, biomass, fossil fuels and construction materials to produce what they say is a more comprehensive picture of the "material footprint" of 186 countries over a 20 year period. In 2008, around 70bn tonnes of raw materials were extracted worldwide but just 10bn tonnes were physically traded. Over 40% were used to enable the processing and export of these materials. "By relying on current indicators, governments are not able to see the true extent of resource consumption," said Dr Tommy Wiedmann from the University of New South Wales.
2013 estimate of 2100 sea level rise due to melting ice
'Best estimate' for impact of melting ice on sea level rise Researchers say they now have the most accurate estimate yet for the impact of the melting of ice sheets. Researchers have published their most advanced calculation for the likely impact of melting ice on global sea levels. The EU funded team say the ice sheets and glaciers could add 36.8 centimetres to the oceans by 2100. Adding in other factors, sea levels could rise by up to 69 centimetres, higher than previous predictions. The researchers say there is a very small chance that the seas around Britain could rise by a meter. “The previous IPCC identified this gap in our knowledge, we've addressed that gap and what we've found is not scary” Prof Tony Payne, University of Bristol The last Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report was highly detailed about many aspects of Earth's changing climate in the coming decades, Advanced models While they estimated that sea levels could rise by 18-59 centimetres by 2100, they were very unsure about the role played by the melting of ice sheets and mountain glaciers. To fill the void, the EU funded experts from 24 institutions in Europe and beyond to try and come up with more accurate figures on the melting of ice sheets and glaciers in Antarctica and Greenland and how this might swell the oceans. Called Ice2sea, the group of scientists have made what they term the "best estimate" yet of the impact of melting based on a mid-range level of carbon emissions that would increase global temperatures by 3.5C by the end of this century.
Arctic Ocean 'acidifying rapidly' Photo1: Saunders Island and Wolstenholme Fjord with Kap Atholl in the background is shown in this picture taken during an Operation IceBridge survey flight in April 2013. Photo 2: arctic volcano. The Arctic seas are being made rapidly more acidic by carbon-dioxide emissions, according to a new report. Scientists from Norway's Center for International Climate and Environmental Research monitored widespread changes in ocean chemistry in the region. They say even if CO2 emissions stopped now, it would take tens of thousands of years for Arctic Ocean chemistry to revert to pre-industrial levels. Many creatures, including commercially valuable fish, could be affected. They forecast major changes in the marine ecosystem, but say there is huge uncertainty over what those changes will be. It is well know that CO2 warms the planet, but less well-known that it also makes the alkaline seas more acidic when its absorbed from the air.
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